2016-04-29 |
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UK Farmers Defy Farm Leaders to Back Brexit by 2:1
Research among almost 600 farmers on their attitudes towards Brexit has found a majority of two to one in favour of leaving the EU.
The study, commissioned by Farmers Weekly, suggests that farmers are significantly at odds with the farming establishment. The National Farmers Union, farmers unions in Scotland and Wales and most other farming bodies that have taken a position have declared their support for staying in the EU.
Overall, 58% of farmers who took part in the research said they will vote “leave” on 23 June, while only 31% plan to opt for “remain”, with 11% undecided.
The proportions vary across the country, but according to the research there is no part of the UK where there is not a sizable majority in favour of leaving amongst those who have decided how to vote. Farmers in the Midlands, South West England, South East England, East Anglia and Yorkshire/Humberside are most keen to leave the EU. Those in Scotland, Wales and the North West of England are slightly more inclined to want to remain, though a significant majority in these regions still say they will vote to leave.
There is also considerable variation in voting intention by farm type. Poultry farmers and growers of vegetables, sugar beet and potatoes were most likely to say they favour Brexit in the study, while sheep and beef farmers had the highest proportions for staying in the EU.
The research, conducted by Reed Business Insight on behalf of Farmers Weekly between 11 and 20 April, is based on responses from 577 farmers across the UK, with the results weighted to reflect the profile of the UK farming population.
Looking at other breakdowns of the results, farmers with smaller holdings and those either under 45 or over 65 are more likely to vote to leave the union, while those running bigger farms and farmers aged 45 to 65 are less likely to want to break with Brussels.
The study also asked farmers what issue most influenced the way they intend to vote in the referendum. Not surprisingly the results suggest significant differences in the priorities of farmers on opposite sides of the debate.
Farmers who want to leave say they are influenced mainly by issues not directly related to farming, such as concern about loss of sovereignty and immigration. When asked about farming-related issues they cite frustration with EU red tape as by far the biggest factor influencing their decision.
The minority of farmers who want to remain in the EU are mainly worried about the impact of Brexit on their economic prospects. They are particularly concerned that leaving the EU will lead to a winding down of farm subsidies, and make it harder to access key European markets for agricultural products.
Farmers who said they plan to vote “remain” are pessimistic about their prospects should the UK vote to split with Brussels - 90% of these farmers believe that Brexit would make them worse off. In contrast, 63% of those who say they will vote to leave believe that their businesses will be better off outside the EU, although a sizable 29% think it will make no difference.
Asked how confident they were that a post-Brexit UK government would implement farmer-friendly policies, 90% of those planning to vote “remain” were either “not at all confident” or “not very confident”. However, even those in the “leave” camp are somewhat uncertain, with only 13% saying they are “very confident” and 57% “quite confident”, leaving 27% with little confidence that they would be on the receiving end of farmer-friendly policies if we left the EU and 3% who don’t know.
Although many of those wanting to break with the EU cited red tape as the main issue influencing their decision, a sizable minority of these farmers think Brexit will make no difference to the amount of farm regulation they face. 62% of “leave” voters believe the amount of regulation would reduce but 35% think it would stay the same. Amongst the minority of farmers who say they want to stay in the EU, 71% believe that leaving would make no difference to the amount of red tape.
The same stark divide between those opting for “leave” and “remain” was evident when farmers were asked how confident they were that the UK would be able to negotiate preferential trade deals with EU member states post-Brexit. 92% of those wanting to quit the EU are either very “confident” or “quite confident” about this, whereas 79% of those opting to stick with Brussels are either “not very confident” or “not at all confident”.
| Results table | ||||
| Q1: How do you currently plan to vote in the European Union referendum on 23rd June? | ||||
Remain a member of the European Union |
31% |
|
||
Leave the European Union |
58% |
|||
Undecided |
11% |
|||
| Q2: Which of the following (if any) would you say is most influencing the way you plan to vote in the EU referendum currently? | ||||
All |
Remain voters |
Leave voters |
Undecided |
|
Any possible impact on agriculture |
32% |
59% |
13% |
58% |
Any possible impact on the wider community |
7% |
12% |
5% |
7% |
Political stability |
9% |
15% |
5% |
11% |
Sovereignty |
30% |
0% |
50% |
14% |
Immigration |
12% |
0% |
20% |
5% |
Other |
9% |
14% |
7% |
5% |
| Q3: Which of the following agricultural issues (if any) would you say is most influencing the way you plan to vote in the EU referendum currently? | ||||
Trading/market access |
15% |
24% |
11% |
15% |
Regulation & policies |
44% |
2% |
72% |
20% |
Farm support |
26% |
50% |
7% |
55% |
Labour market access |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
Technology & research |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Rural development & economy |
9% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
Other |
6% |
13% |
2% |
5% |
| Q4: If the United Kingdom was to leave the European Union do you think your farm / business would be better or worse off overall? | ||||
Better off if the UK left the EU |
37% |
0% |
63% |
2% |
Worse off if the UK left the EU |
32% |
90% |
4% |
21% |
Remain the same if the UK left the EU |
21% |
7% |
29% |
16% |
Don’t know |
10% |
3% |
4% |
61% |
| Q5: How confident are you that a UK government will implement farming-friendly policies in the event of an EU exit? | ||||
Very confident |
8% |
0% |
13% |
0% |
Quite confident |
37% |
10% |
57% |
6% |
Not very confident |
28% |
32% |
21% |
56% |
Not at all confident |
24% |
58% |
6% |
24% |
Don’t know |
3% |
0% |
3% |
13% |
| Q6: If the United Kingdom was to leave the European Union do you think the amount of farm regulation would increase or decrease? | ||||
Increase if the UK left the EU |
7% |
17% |
1% |
8% |
Decrease if the UK left the EU |
39% |
4% |
62% |
18% |
Remain the sameif the UK left the EU |
49% |
71% |
35% |
60% |
Don’t know |
5% |
9% |
2% |
14% |
| Q7: How confident are you that a UK government would be able to negotiate preferential trade deals with EU member states and other countries if the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU? | ||||
Very confident |
23% |
0% |
38% |
4% |
Quite confident |
39% |
12% |
54% |
35% |
Not very confident |
22% |
46% |
6% |
43% |
Not at all confident |
12% |
33% |
1% |
10% |
Don’t know |
4% |
9% |
1% |
8% |
