FEED WHEAT

The US market has eased back over the past week (MAY CBOT falling 27c/bushel $10) despite the recent sale to Egypt. The pace of US wheat exports are well behind the average and this year’s current USDA projection, prompting thoughts of a reduction in the export numbers in next week’s USDA report.

EU markets followed the US lower, with MATIF MAY down €6. The recent purchase by Egypt also included a 60tmt sale of French wheat along with a 60tmt sale from Romania. With the Ukraine all but finished on wheat exports for the season, and the likelihood that Russian offers will soon dry up due to higher domestic prices, EU wheat remains supported on expected North African export demand.

The UK market continues to defy gravity with the market unchanged on the week. The overall tightness of the UK balance sheet was further confirmed last week with the news that the Vivergo plant is now open and expected to reach full capacity early in the new year. The adverse weather continues to hinder planting progress, with the HGCA now reporting that about 80% of winter crops have so far been planted.

In summary, the USDA report next week should report a further global tightening of corn /wheat stocks. Market fundamentals remain intact and bullish, however, the market is always vulnerable to bouts of profit taking and any macro-economic data that affects potential demand.

OATS

Millers continue to process imported oats which in turn is slowing intake for the domestic supply.

Prices for 50kg plus parcels remain steady and growers with 46/49 kg heaps are in many cases successfully upgrading this quality.

The current cold spell is enabling a few more winter oats to be sown and will also create a demand for the breakfast products on the supermarket shelves.

MALTING BARLEY

EU malting barley prices are unchanged from last week.

Malting premiums are rising slightly and extra demand may see them rise further.

All pre-Xmas markets have all but been covered but there is good demand after the New Year for both winter and spring varieties.

There is maltster demand for Jan-Mar though, both for winter and spring varieties.

New crop malting values, like old crop, have also remained steady throughout the week with the EU export markets also staying quiet.

Gleadell still have competitive Null-Lox contracts to offer for January-March movement for crop’13; this includes our non-defaultable Null-Lox POOL and premium-over-futures contracts.

We also have good contracts available for winter varieties; again on non-defaultable POOL terms and a futures-related basis. All winters contracts are available for harvest, Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar.

RAPESEED

The early part of the week has seen MATIF rapeseed futures come under pressure in light volume trade. Australian harvest pressures appears to be the main driver for this as the MATIF rapeseed markets have underperformed other components of the oilseed complex.

Canadian canola has rallied towards the back end of the week with Statscan increasing the Canadian canola figure to 13.3 million tonnes. This was less than market expectations. Production is down from 14.6mt a year ago, stretching the already tight supply and demand.

The soybean market continues to push higher primarily on technical trading as opposed to any change in fundamentals, the south American weather seems to be mentioned on a daily basis but it is fair to say there isn’t any big story developing there at present.

Domestically the market remains quiet with little coming forward from farm and light inter-merchant trade and we expect some choppy, light volume trade as we head into the Christmas period.

SEED

Spring seed demand has remained high over the past week with the continued wet weather causing more issues in regard to autumn planting opportunities.

Spring cereal supply is now extremely tight. We currently have limited amount of spring barley left available – including a small amount of the new Null-Lox variety Cheerio, along with an attractive buyback contract and a small amount of Propino.

Spring wheat and oats are now sold out across the whole trade with a small chance that there will be further availability once the seed is processed and cleaned and correct tonnage known both from UK supply and from the continent.

Moving to the pulses complex we have now practically sold out of Spring bean seed – with a small amount of Pyramid left available. Following this we have availability of both large blue peas the main variety being Daytona which has excellent yield potential and sound agronomics. Daytona are available on a buyback contract which shows excellent returns and this is the same for the marrowfat pea Kabuki. Kabuki is a mainstay of the market, accepted by all end users due to its excellent quality and it is this characteristic which is most important when selecting a pea variety.

Gleadell also have access to a number of excellent choices on Spring OSR and Linseed seed, for either new areas or patching up of winter crops.

We are now also in a position to offer a range of Maize varieties both for bioenergy/forage and grain.

Next week we will be updating on the Recommended List decisions which are announced with a preview of the new OSR and Winter Wheat varieties that have been added to the list for the 2013-14 season.

Please contact your Gleadell Farm Trader for further details on any of the above.

FERTILISER

Urea
The Egyptian government has tentatively notified indigenous producers of urea that an export tax as high as $100/MT will be considered unless the manufacturers comply fully with their requests for allocations of urea for the domestic market. A duration of up to six months has been suggested for the possible taxation which follows several weeks of civil unrest and gas supply problems. Market values firmed immediately by $15–20/ tonne following this news and producers elsewhere are now watching developments closely. The market certainly feels as though it bottomed out last week and fresh buying interest from Europe and South America has surfaced, although here in the UK buying interest remains at low levels. Prilled urea values have also corrected this week following the lead taken by Granular.

GrowHow N -Min®and N – Calc soil sampling service
The area of Spring Barley with malting potential has increased this year and producing barley at an acceptable Nitrogen level is more of an important factor than ever. Due to the high rainfall there is uncertainty surrounding the likely soil nitrogen supply, so accurate Nitrogen levels in the soil need to be established. Nitrogen levels in grains are mainly controlled by reducing fertiliser N but GrowHow have found that by applying higher artificial N in conjunction with Sulphur, lower grain N can be achieved. Gleadell are offering an N-Min field sampling service to all their growers and by sampling these fields destined for malting barley, then following this N-Min system, it should help to take the guesswork out of Nitrogen recommendations and could help to avoid any issues at delivery following harvest.

Ammonium Nitrate
Ammonium nitrate in the UK continues to move at a slow pace reflecting the drilling progress made to date. Values remain range bound and prices for product can be seen on farm at similar levels to previous weeks with no real movements. However, moving into January, values do move up as manufacturers in Europe can see supplies are tight and volumes purchased to date remain well behind a normal year. Once spring arrives and buyers return to the market do not be surprised to see a run-up in prices at some stage, demand may well outstrip supply.

Phosphate & Potash
Both these markets remain quiet as values continue to trade sideways. Little or no demand is now expected before January and with an increase in spring sown crops and sales of straight P and K well down this autumn, the demand for spring NPK fertilisers is forecast to increase. Applied in the spring these are very effective when used to balance P and K indices, especially as a granular compound where the correct fertiliser can be applied in the right place at the right time. Call Gleadell now to discuss your options.