Plan Early Lamb Tupping With Realistic Budgets
02/08/05

Carefully planned tupping on the basis of realistic budgets will be more essential than ever this summer if English early lamb producers are to make the most of an increasingly challenging spring market, warns the English Beef and Lamb Executive (EBLEX) following a specialist forward-budgeting exercise.

Using benchmark enterprise costings data from English lowland flocks (available, together with guidance on budgeting at www.eblex.org.uk) the EBLEX budgets suggest the majority of producers need prices in excess of £3.17/kg deadweight (£1.33/kg liveweight) to earn a profit from early lamb, with only those in the top third producing at a total cost of £2.55/kg deadweight (£1.07/kg liveweight) or less.

Table: Benchmark English Lowland Flock Early Lamb Budgets

At the same time, historic market data indicate that, while returns of over £3.20/kg deadweight were achieved over a reasonable period in the spring of 2003, they were only available for around three weeks in 2004 and not at all this year. Equally, the peak of 2005 pricing at just over £3.00/kg occurred in late May/early June compared with late April/early May in the past.

In recent years, prices have been affected by uncertainty over hogget retentions and swollen numbers coming onto the market in late spring, coupled with increased supplies of quality chilled lamb from New Zealand over an extended season.

While hogget retentions are unlikely to be a problem again, the continued challenge from New Zealand is considered likely to increase the market risk for domestic producers despite growing retailer involvement in the EBLEX English Quality Standard Mark.

Under these circumstances, English flocks would be well-advised to turn rams out with their ewes for early lambing only on the basis of careful cost/kg deadweight budgets prepared for their own circumstances, and following research with local markets and other outlets.

Where fixed costs, in particular, cannot be kept down to a level at which early lamb can be produced for less than around £2.75/kg deadweight, many producers may find spring lambing offers better prospects at less risk.