04/02/08
The coming year will see a further decline in prime cattle supplies
accompanied by a recovery in exports and a reduction in imports,
predicts the latest annual outlook from the English Beef & Lamb
Executive (EBLEX).
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Although cow beef supplies are expected to increase again as a greater
proportion of older animals become eligible to enter the food chain,
this is unlikely to undermine fundamentals which suggest a strengthening
market for home-produced beef.
Last year saw prime cattle supplies down 2.3% at 2.17 million head
in line with the continued decline in the national dairy and suckler
herds. Interestingly, however, an increase of around 12kg in average
carcase weights led prime beef production to be some 1.4% higher
than 2006. This was due to heavier beasts overall together with a
greater proportion of steers in the slaughter mix.
The most recent June agriculture survey recorded further annual declines
of 1.8% and 1.3% respectively in the English dairy and suckler herds.
While substantially improved milk prices from the second half of
last year may reduce the scale of the dairy herd decline, a significant
annual reduction in the overall cattle breeding herd is still forecast
for 2008.
At the same time, the very much higher cost of feed from last autumn
is considered likely to result in a reduction in slaughter weights,
although proportionately more steers in the mix will keep these noticeably
higher than 2006.
Until trade restrictions linked to FMD beef exports were developing
well last year. Without further disruptions, they are expected to
grow from an estimated 76,000 tonnes in 2007 to around 85,000 in
the current year. This growth will be supported by a favourable sterling/euro
exchange rate, the continued EU deficit of manufacturing beef and
the greater availability of UK cow beef, with the Netherlands and
Ireland continuing to be the main trade destinations.
On the import side, 2008 looks like being a particularly interesting
year. Confining Brazilian exports to animals from farms approved
to EU standards will almost certainly hit volumes – in the
initial months of the year, at least. Especially so as there are
no significant alternative overseas sources of imported beef currently
available. However, the scale of this reduction could well fall over
the course of the year as more Brazilian farms are added to the list
of those approved by the EU Commission.
UK Beef Market Figures (tonnes)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 (est) |
2008 (forecast) |
Production |
762,000 |
847,000* |
882,000 |
870,000 |
Imports |
299,000 |
295,000 |
296,000 |
290,000 |
Exports |
11,000 |
46,000 |
76,000 |
85,000 |
Consumption |
1,057,000 |
1,094,000 |
1,102,000 |
1,075,000 |
* OTM beef re-entered the food chain in November 2005
Lower
Supplies Likely for Sheepmeat in 2008
Limousin
Bull Buyers' Survey Gives a High Approval Rate
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