04/02/08
A number of factors will combine to reduce supplies in the UK
sheepmeat market in 2008, according to the latest annual outlook
from the English Beef and Lamb Executive (EBLEX).
At a total of 316,000 tonnes, UK sheepmeat production in 2008
is forecast to be 8,000 tonnes (nearly 2.5%) down on 2007 - however,
farmgate prices may not strengthen sufficiently to offset recent
feed and other cost increases for many producers.
With Defra’s June 2007 agriculture survey showing the national
breeding flock down 3.4% on 2006 and lambing rates in the current
year expected to be somewhat lower than last year’s historic
high of 115.6%, the number of lambs available for slaughter in
2008 is forecast to be nearly 200,000 (1.4%) lower than 2007.
The reduction in the breeding flock over the past year is also
likely to reduce domestic mutton production. Assuming the ewe culling
rate remains similar to the level recorded in 2007, slaughterings
are, indeed, set to be 60,000 head (2.8%) below last year.
The backlog of lambs caused by last autumn’s FMD restrictions
now seems to have been all but cleared, thanks to higher slaughterings
in November, December and January, buoyant consumer demand and
the removal of nearly 250,000 light lambs from the food chain in
Scotland and Wales under the welfare disposal schemes. This paves
the way for less early season market disruption than may have originally
been feared.
The relative weakness of sterling against the euro and declining
sheepmeat production across Europe also suggests fairly healthy
export prospects for the coming season. At 78,000 tonnes, annual
exports in 2008 are predicted to rise by around 11.5% (8000 tonnes)
on 2007. This will, of course, depend on current exchange rates
being maintained and no significant decreases in European consumption
taking place.
UK imports in 2008 are expected to increase slightly by 3,000 tonnes
on 2007 to a total of 133,000 tonnes. This suggests a 5,000 tonne
more favourable balance between imports and exports than last year – driven
by a lack of Irish supplies and New Zealand exports limited by
quota.
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